A Milestone: Nelson on Ballot Measure Sidelines

Jeff Mapes, The Oregonian
August 8, 2008

Perhaps no one has made more money off of Oregon's ballot measure system than Salem consultant Mark Nelson. You may recall that he was one of the strategists behind the tobacco industry's $12 million knifing of last year's tobacco tax measure.

But Nelson won't be so busy this fall. For the first time in 28 years, he's not involved in any of the state initiative campaigns. Nelson said his wife is happy about it, but he sounds wistful himself.

"I love ballot measures," he said. "I just love 'em....It's our niche."

Basically, the reason why Nelson is sidelined is that there's nothing on the ballot drawing a big opposition campaign by some business interest.

Usually, the environmentalists or liberal health-care activists - or somebody - will put something on the ballot that will prod some business with deep pockets to call up Nelson.

This year, however, the big-dollar campaigns are being led by the labor unions, and they've long since parted ways with Nelson.

Nelson first became known in Oregon as an aide to Democrat Jim Redden, who served as treasurer and attorney general in the 1970s. When Redden became a federal judge, Nelson went into the consulting business, working against an initiative to limit property taxes in 1980. He also did polling for the Oregon Education Association and many assumed he'd settle comfortably into the Democratic political establishment.

But in the 1985 legislative session, Nelson took on Coors - then engaged in a heavy-duty battle with unions - as a client and it became clear that he was in business for himself. He continued working for the OEA, successfully battling three more property-tax limits before losing when voters passed Measure 5 in 1990.

Nelson's break with the OEA came in 1992 when he worked against a "split-roll" initiative that would have taxed residential property at lower rates than commercial property. Nelson said then-OEA executive director Bob Crumpton initially said the teachers' union wouldn't get involved in it and didn't mind if Nelson worked against the measure. But the OEA board decided to endorse the measure, which was sponsored by the Service Employees International Union.

Since then, Nelson hasn't worked for the teacher's union and he's become better known for his long list of lobbying clients, which have ranged from the R.J.Reynolds tobacco company to the state's public defenders, and for his ballot measure work.

Ever the advocate, Nelson argued that he's figured out a better way to devise his advertising message on ballot measures. The mistake most strategists make, he argued, is to use benchmark polling that asks voters if they would be more or less likely to support a measure after hearing a certain argument about it.

"You end up getting a bunch of mush," he said. Nelson said he also runs arguments past poll respondents but he asks them after each one whether they now support or oppose the measure. Essentially, he said, he's forcing voters into a series of mock elections.

"I'll have swings of as much as 26 percent one way and 20 percent the other way," said Nelson, arguing that he is able to come up with the most compelling messages that he will then hammer home throughout the entire campaign. Of course, it also helps that Nelson is usually (although not always) working with a big money advantage.

Nelson said he won't have a boring fall. There's a legislative session coming up and he's representing a client that is fighting an effort to stop a landfill expansion in Yamhill County. And there's always the resort he owns down in Costa Rica. Who knows what kind of attention that might need?